2022年长江流域极端高温干旱的环流异常特征及其影响机制

Atmospheric circulation anomalies and impact mechanisms behind the extreme heat and drought event over the Yangtze River Basin in 2022

  • 摘要: 2022年盛夏,长江流域遭遇了历史罕见的极端高温干旱复合事件,探究其成因与影响机理对科学认识极端气候事件意义重大。基于长江流域720个国家级气象站观测数据、综合气象干旱指数(MCI)及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等数据,系统分析了此次事件的环流异常特征及海温外强迫的影响机制。结果表明,西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)和南亚高压(SAH)异常增强并控制长江流域,强度均达到历史极值。副热带西风急流(SWJ)异常偏北形成暖脊,有效阻挡冷暖气流辐合;长江流域受异常反气旋环流控制,水汽辐散。再次发展的拉尼娜事件和热带印度洋偶极子(TIOD)异常负位相协同作用,通过增强沃克环流和哈得来环流的下沉支,在副热带西风急流的辅助下进一步强化长江流域深厚的高压系统,最终导致此次极端高温干旱事件的发生。值得注意的是,随着印度洋暖池(IOWP)和西太平洋暖池(WPWP)海温的年代际增暖,二者对西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压的影响显著增强,其重要性已超过赤道中东太平洋海温的影响,可作为重要的次季节-季节预测关键因子。

     

    Abstract: In the midsummer of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin experienced a historically rare extreme compound event of high temperature and drought. Investigating its causes and impact mechanisms is of great significance for the scientific understanding of extreme climate events. This study utilizes daily maximum temperature observations collected at 720 national meteorological stations across the Yangtze River Basin and the Meteorological Draught Composite Index (MCI) as well as the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to systematically analyze atmospheric circulation anomalies and influencing mechanisms of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as an external forcing. Results indicate that during the summer of 2022, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and South Asian High (SAH) exhibited unprecedented intensification and dominated the Yangtze River Basin, with their intensities reaching historical extremes. An abnormally northward shifted 200 hPa Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ) formed a warm ridge, effectively blocking the convergence of cold and warm air masses. The Yangtze River Basin was controlled by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which led to significant water vapor divergence. The re-intensification of the La Niña event and the record-breaking strengthening of the negative phase of the Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (TIOD) jointly enhanced the descending branches of both the Walker and Hadley circulations, which, aided by the SWJ, further intensified the deep high-pressure system over the Yangtze River Basin, ultimately resulting in the prolonged extreme high temperature and drought event. It is worth noting that the interdecadal warming of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP) and the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) has led to increasingly significant impacts on the WPSH and SAH. Their influences have exceeded that of SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, making them key predictors for sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting.

     

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