2001—2020年夏季东北地区中尺度对流系统的统计特征

Statistical characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Northeast China during 2001—2020

  • 摘要: 为研究中国东北地区夏季中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,MCS)的时空分布特征和生成机制,基于2001—2020年6—8月卫星观测数据及再分析数据,客观识别MCS并进行了统计分析。结果表明,MCS生成位置主要集中在大、小兴安岭和长白山等山脉附近,生成数量与地形坡度呈显著正相关。MCS的降水贡献以平原地区为主。东北平原每年夏季平均有7.71个MCS活动,其降水强度(2.45 mm/h)远高于气候平均值,对极端降水(≥10 mm/h)的贡献率平均为33.56%,最大可达70%左右。影响东北平原的MCS数量呈显著增加趋势(增速0.43个/a),以大兴安岭附近生成的MCS数量增多为主,该区域生成的MCS持续时间(16.4 h)和降水强度(5.1 mm/h)均显著高于其他区域。MCS生成受环流异常和地形抬升共同作用,高层气旋式环流异常前的辐散风场、低层西南风水汽输送及上冷下暖的不稳定层结为MCS的生成提供了有利条件。

     

    Abstract: The spatiotemporal distribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in Northeast China and their formation mechanisms are investigated using GPM satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis data from June to August over 2001—2020. The results indicate that MCSs predominantly initiate near mountainous such as the Greater and Lesser Khingan mountains and the Changbai mountains, with the genesis frequency significantly and positively correlated with terrain slope. The MCSs precipitation contribution is most prominent over plain areas. On average, 7.71 MCSs occur per summer over the Northeast plain, with a precipitation intensity (2.45 mm/h) significantly higher than the climatological mean. MCSs contribute an average of 33.56% to extreme precipitation (≥10 mm/h), with a maximum contribution of approximately 70%. The number of MCSs affecting the Northeast plain exhibits a significant increasing trend (0.43 events/a), primarily driven by the increase in MCSs generated near the Greater Khingan mountains. MCSs generated near the Greater Khingan mountains exhibit longer durations (16.4 h) and higher precipitation intensities (5.1 mm/h) compared to those from other areas. The formation of MCSs is jointly influenced by anomalous circulation and orographic lifting. Upper-level divergence ahead of cyclonic circulation anomalies, low-level southwesterly moisture transportation, and an unstable stratification with cold upper and warm lower layers provide favorable conditions for the development of MCSs.

     

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