CMA-MESO背景误差的日变化特征及其应用

Diurnal variation characterization of CMA-MESO background errors and their application

  • 摘要: 背景误差协方差(Background Error Covariance,BEC)是变分资料同化框架的核心,构建更加接近实际的BEC是提升数值预报系统同化和预报能力的重要途径。基于CMA-MESO千米尺度区域数值预报系统研究BEC参数的日变化情况,并将其应用于实际同化预报试验,研究日变化BEC参数的影响。研究采用集合方法计算背景误差样本,逐3 h统计每天 8个时次(00—21时(世界时,下同))的BEC参数,并分析其日变化情况。结果表明,各变量的背景均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)和空间相关尺度在对流层中、下层有明显的日变化特征。风场和湿度场的背景误差在多数模式层呈现出夜间大于日间的特点,且最大值出现在12时;温度场的背景误差在06和09时均较大,850 hPa以下表现更明显。对于误差的水平相关,在18—03时相关尺度更大,而在垂直对流混合更强的06—15时相关尺度较小。对于误差的垂直相关,日变化特征主要表现为垂直相关系数在06时较大,其他时刻相关系数的差异较小。理想试验结果表明,新统计的日变化参数能够在不同时刻调整观测信息的影响权重和传播距离,使得同化分析与BEC日变化特征匹配。为期1个月的同化预报循环试验结果显示,采用日变化的BEC参数可以减小风场和温度场的同化分析误差,改进降水预报特别是大雨和暴雨的预报,同时能够降低地面2 m气温预报误差。

     

    Abstract: Background Error Covariance (BEC) is a crucial component of variational data assimilation frameworks. Constructing a BEC that more accurately represents reality is essential for enhancing the assimilation and forecasting capabilities of numerical prediction systems. Based on the CMA-MESO kilometer-scale regional numerical prediction system, diurnal variations of BEC parameters are analyzed, and the variational parameters are applied in actual assimilation and forecasting experiments to assess their impacts. The ensemble method is used to calculate background error samples, and BEC parameters are statistically analyzed at eight times of a day with a 3 h interval (00: 00—21: 00 UTC) to investigate their diurnal variations. The results show that the background Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and spatial correlation scale of the background error for various variables exhibit clear diurnal variation features in the lower and middle troposphere. The RMSEs of wind and humidity fields are generally larger at night than during the day, with the maximum values occurring at 12: 00 UTC. For temperature, the RMSE is larger at 06: 00 and 09: 00 UTC with more pronounced variations below 850 hPa. Regarding horizontal correlation, larger correlation scales are observed during 18: 00—03: 00 UTC, while smaller correlation scales are found during 06: 00—15: 00 UTC when vertical convective mixing is stronger. As for vertical correlation coefficient of the background error, the diurnal variation is most prominent at 06: 00 UTC, with smaller differences at other times. The idealized experiment results demonstrate that the newly estimated diurnal variation parameters can adjust the influence weights and propagation distances of observational information at different times, ensuring that the assimilation analysis matches the diurnal variation characteristics of BEC. Month-long assimilation and forecasting cycle experiments show that using the diurnal variation BEC parameters reduces assimilation analysis errors in wind and temperature fields, improves precipitation forecasts-particularly for heavy rain and thunderstorms and also reduces 2 m surface temperature forecast errors.

     

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