人工智能气象预报:进展、挑战与未来展望—WMO人工智能大会综述

Artificial intelligence for weather prediction:Advances, challenges and future outlook—A review of the WMO Artificial Intelligence Conference

  • 摘要: 当前,气象领域人工智能(AI)技术迅猛发展,在气象观测、天气气候预测、气象服务等领域展现出巨大的潜力。然而,技术鸿沟、监管滞后、数据失衡、极端事件预报能力弱、可解释性欠缺、公私协同不畅等问题叠加,也为全球气象AI发展带来挑战和风险。在此背景下,2025年9月9—11日,世界气象组织(WMO)主办的主题为“AI气象预报:进展、挑战与未来展望”的WMO AI大会在阿联酋召开。此次大会全面、深入地探讨了气象AI技术发展的机遇和挑战,会议发布了《WMO AI大会宣言》,确定了今后全球气象AI合作重点方向:打造适配AI发展的数据环境;建立可信任的评估与可解释性框架;推进能力建设与适配的治理框架;构建公共、私营及学术机构间的跨领域合作关系;制定气象预报服务中AI伦理应用的通用原则与规范。在全球气象领域AI发展布局、国际合作等方面达成了共识。

     

    Abstract: At present, Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies in meteorology are developing rapidly, demonstrating significant potential in meteorological observation, weather and climate prediction, and weather service. However, a convergence of challenges including technological gaps, lagging regulation, data imbalance, limited generalization ability for extreme events, insufficient explainability, and inadequate public-private collaboration etc. poses severe challenges and potential risks to global development of meteorological AI. In this background, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened the WMO AI Conference, themed "AI for Weather Prediction, Advances, Challenges & Future Outlook", from 9 to 11 September 2025 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The conference provided a comprehensive and in-depth discussion of the opportunities and challenges associated with the development of AI technologies in meteorology. A WMO AI Conference statement was released, which identified key priority areas for future global collaboration in meteorological AI. These areas include strengthening data foundations and infrastructure to ensure the availability of data for AI; establishing trustworthy evaluation and explainability frameworks; advancing capacity building and fit-for-purpose governance frameworks; fostering cross-sector collaboration among public, private, and academia; and developing common principles and guidelines for the ethical application of AI in meteorological services. The conference laid the groundwork for future global development and international cooperation in the application of AI within the meteorological community.

     

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