巨灾保险中的气象科技需求综述

Meteorological science and technology needs in catastrophe insurance: A review of research and policy recommendations

  • 摘要: 随着气候变化导致的极端天气、气候事件的频次与强度显著上升,气象灾害风险呈现出复合性、系统性与非线性特征,传统基于经验的巨灾保险机制面临严峻挑战。在此基础上,研究和探讨气象科技在巨灾保险体系重构中的支撑作用及其技术路径, 以应对风险识别与定价难度上升的现实问题。从全球巨灾风险演化出发,分析了中国在气象科技发展与巨灾保险制度建设方面的政策导向与监管动向,系统梳理保险机构在承保、再保与服务各业务板块中对气象科技的差异化技术需求。研究发现,气象科技在巨灾保险的核保、定价、理赔、防灾与减灾等关键流程中已形成多层次应用格局,在巨灾保险机制向前端干预、智能演化和参数化转型中发挥着基础支撑作用。为充分发挥上述作用应构建多源气象数据驱动的风险动态监测、情景分析与压力测试体系,推动气象科技赋能巨灾综合治理体系建设并完善气象科技支撑的再保险与资本市场工具体系,构建具有预测性、韧性与适应性的气候风险保障框架。

     

    Abstract: In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have significantly increased, leading to more complex, systematic, and nonlinear disaster risks. The traditional insurance mechanism based on experiences is facing great challenges. As a strategic support system integrating multiple disciplines, meteorological science and technology are deeply embedded in the entire process of risk identification, pricing, claims settlement, and early warning in catastrophe insurance. Starting from the evolution of global catastrophe risks, this paper analyzes the policy orientation and regulatory trends in China regarding the development of meteorological science and technology and the construction of catastrophe insurance systems. It systematically outlines differentiated technical demands of insurance institutions for meteorological science and technology in various business segments such as underwriting, reinsurance, and services. It focuses on discussing the key tools and application scenarios in the processes of underwriting, pricing, claims settlement, and disaster prevention and mitigation, revealing the fundamental supporting role of meteorological science and technology in the forward intervention, intelligent evolution, and parameterization transformation of the insurance mechanism. Based on the work outlined above, this paper proposes policy measures such as improving the data governance system, optimizing the technological innovation mechanism, exploring the path of coordinated development, and establishing a composite talent system, etc. The present study provides both theoretical basis and practical paths for building a climate risk protection framework with predictability, resilience, and adaptability.

     

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