银行业气候风险压力测试:基于行业隐含碳成本的视角

Climate risk stress testing for the banking industry: From the perspective of industry-embodied carbon costs

  • 摘要: 随着气候风险通过实体经济向金融系统的跨领域传导,全球气候变化日益成为系统性金融风险的核心驱动因素。电价市场化改革驱动发电侧碳成本通过价格传导链条向工业、交通等关联行业渗透,导致金融机构气候风险敞口持续扩大,加剧气候风险冲击下金融业系统性风险的累积效应。研究聚焦于气候风险冲击下行业隐含碳成本对银行业系统性风险的影响。通过联合构建投入-产出价格传导模型和气候损失莫顿模型,评估隐含碳成本造成的行业债务价值损失,最后基于气候风险敞口资产的折价抛售机制,系统刻画了气候风险对金融体系稳定性的潜在影响。研究发现,电力行业对其他行业存在显著的气候风险传导效应,资产折价抛售是气候风险冲击下金融系统风险放大的关键诱因。研究旨在为气候政策与金融风险防控的协同机制设计提供理论依据,助力中国“双碳”目标下的金融系统稳定框架构建。

     

    Abstract: Global climate change is increasingly becoming a key driver of systemic financial risk as climate-related risks are transmitted across the board through the real economy to the financial system. Power price market reform is driving the transmission of side carbon costs from the power generation sector through the price chain into industry, transportation and other related industries. As a result, the climate exposure of financial institutions continues to expand, exacerbating the cumulative effect of financial industry systemic risks under climate risk shocks. This study focuses on the impact of the industry's embodied carbon costs on systemic risks in the banking sector under climate risk shocks. The potential impact of climate risk on the stability of the financial system is systematically presented by jointly constructing the Input-Output Price Conduction Model and the Morton Model of Climate Loss to assess the loss of industry debt value due to embodied carbon costs and finally based on the discount selling mechanism of climate exposure assets. It is found that the power industry has significant climate risk conduction effect on other industries, and asset selling is the key incentive of financial systemic risk amplification under climate risk shocks. The purpose of this study is to provide a theoretical basis for the design of synergistic mechanisms for climate policy and financial risk mitigation and control, and contribute to the construction of the financial system stability framework under the "bi-carbon" objective of China.

     

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