气溶胶观测同化对CMA-CW v1.0快速循环系统的影响评估

Evaluation of the impact of aerosol assimilation on the CMA-CW v1.0 rapid cycle system

  • 摘要: 为充分了解地面气溶胶观测同化对中国气象局区域化学天气数值预报系统(CMA-CW v1.0)预报性能的影响,进行了冬、夏各1个月6h间隔的连续循环试验,对每天00时(世界时)起报的72 h预报试验结果进行了检验和评估,得出结论如下:(1)CMA-CW v1.0系统能有效同化地面气溶胶观测资料,2023年12月试验表明气溶胶地面观测资料同化显著提升了PM2.5质量浓度分析精度,使月平均均方根误差减少了约25 μg/m,相对减少率约为 47%;并显著提升PM2.5质量浓度和能见度的前24 h预报准确率,其中气溶胶污染物浓度空报现象显著缓解。(2)地面气溶胶观测同化不仅提高了污染物浓度的预报能力,还对天气要素预报有正贡献,冬季试验(2023年12月)表明气溶胶同化对小雨降水预报存在正贡献,夏季降水试验(2025年7月)表明地面气溶胶同化对24 h降水各量级预报均有正贡献,但是地面气溶胶观测同化使2 m温度预报略有增温,10 m风预报没有影响。地面气溶胶观测同化显著提高了PM2.5质量浓度和能见度预报质量,对降水预报也有正贡献,CMA-CW v1.0快速循环系统已投入业务运行,可为空气质量预报预警提供可靠技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To fully understand the impact of assimilating ground-based aerosol observations on the forecast performance of the CMA Regional Chemical Weather Numerical Prediction System (CMA-CW v1.0) rapid cycle system, continuous cycle tests were conducted over a one-month period in both winter and summer at 6-hour intervals. Results of 72 h forecasts at 00: 00 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) were examined and evaluated, and the conclusions are as follows. (1) The CMA-CW v1.0 rapid update cycle system is capable of efficiently assimilating ground-based aerosol observation data. The December 2023 experiment significantly improves the accuracy of PM2.5 mass concentration analysis, reducing the monthly mean root-mean-square error by approximately 25 μg/m3, representing a relative reduction of about 47%; It also significantly improved the accuracy of 24-hour forecasts for PM2.5 mass concentration and visibility, with a marked reduction in instances of missing aerosol pollutant concentration forecasts. (2) The assimilation of ground-based aerosol observation data not only improved the forecasting capability for pollutant concentrations but also made a significant positive contribution to the forecasting of weather elements; the winter experiment (December 2023) indicated that aerosol data assimilation made a positive contribution to light rain forecasts, while the summer precipitation experiment (July 2025) showed that aerosol assimilation made a positive contribution to 24-hour precipitation forecasts across all intensity levels; however, aerosol observation assimilation caused a slight warming in the 2-meter temperature forecast but had no impact on the 10-meter wind forecast. Ground-based aerosol assimilation significantly improves the forecast quality of PM2.5 mass concentration and visibility, and also makes a positive contribution to precipitation forecasts. The CMA-CW v1.0 rapid-cycle system has been put into operational use and can provide reliable technical support for air quality forecasting and early warning.

     

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