华北黄淮极端雨强多尺度过程和物理模型

Recognition of multi-scale processes and a physical model for extreme rainfall mechanisms in North China and the Huanghuai region

  • 摘要: 近些年华北、黄淮地区极端强降水事件频繁发生,如具有代表性的“21·7”河南暴雨与“23·7”京津冀暴雨事件。回顾业务预报和机理分析研究,暴露出当前对极端雨强多尺度成因机制认知的不足,亟需开展系统研究。总结了近几年对华北、黄淮极端雨强的机理研究,系统梳理了极端雨强的时空分布特征、典型天气形势、中尺度对流系统演变以及微物理结构;通过结合多源观测与数值模拟数据补充既有研究,解析了涵盖天气尺度、中尺度至云微物理层面的多尺度物理过程。强调了不同尺度间的协同耦合作用,提出一种多尺度天气型识别方法,通过匹配从大尺度环流到中小尺度扰动的形势特征,显著提高了对极端降水的识别;合成归纳出暖性型和深对流型两类典型极端雨强中尺度系统类型,明确其在雨滴谱特征与水凝物相态分布等微物理结构的主要差异。针对华北、黄淮地区的极端雨强构建了一个多尺度物理模型,深化了对极端雨强形成机制的认识,为提升极端雨强的天气分析、预报能力以及数值模式的物理过程表达提供了参考。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, extreme rainfall events such as the "21·7" Henan and "23·7" Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei storms have frequently impacted North China and the Huanghuai region (North China-Huanghuai region). These events exposed significant gaps in our understanding of their physical mechanisms. This article summarizes recent researches on spatial-temporal features, synoptic patterns, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and microphysical structures of extreme rainfall. By combining multi-source observations and model simulations, the study highlights the multiscale processes—from large-scale circulation to microphysics—that jointly shape rainfall intensity. A multiscale pattern recognition method is proposed to improve the identification of extreme events. Two distinct MCS types—warm-type and deep-convective-type—are characterized, especially in terms of raindrop spectra and hydrometeor composition. A multiscale conceptual model tailored to North China is presented, offering insights to improve forecasting and model representation of extreme rainfall processes.

     

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