单年和多年印度洋偶极子事件对南极海冰影响的对比分析

A comparative analysis of the impacts of single-year and multi-year Indian Ocean Dipole events on Antarctic sea ice

  • 摘要: 基于CMIP6资料集中CESM2地球系统模式的近千年工业革命前控制试验模拟数据,识别并分类了印度洋偶极子正位相(pIOD)事件,按持续时间划分为单年和连续多年(双年和三年)事件,并对单年和多年事件进行了对比分析,以揭示其对南极春季海冰与大气环流的差异性影响。结果表明,pIOD事件引起的海冰异常分布模态显著依赖其持续时间。单年事件导致典型的西南极偶极型海冰异常分布,多年事件则表现为异常中心的东移和经向扩展的演变特征。pIOD事件激发的罗斯贝波列引起的大气环流异常是驱动上述差异的关键机制。海冰变化过程既受到埃克曼输运和热力平流等动力过程的调节,也与向下短波和向下长波辐射的热力过程相关。相比单年事件,多年pIOD事件可激发更持久且更强的罗斯贝波列,在一定程度上增大和维持对南极春季海冰的影响。进一步分析模式输出的动力和热力过程导致的海冰质量收支变化,结果显示动力过程和热力过程中的底部融化、雪向冰转化三项是影响海冰质量变化的主要因子。

     

    Abstract: Using a nearly thousand-year pre-industrial control simulation from the CESM2 Earth System Model in the CMIP6 archive, we identify positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events and categorize them into single-year and consecutive multi-year (two- and three-year) types based on their duration. Direct comparisons between different types are conducted to reveal their impacts on Antarctic spring sea ice and atmospheric circulation. Results show that the sea ice anomaly pattern triggered by pIOD events is strongly duration-dependent. Single-year events lead to a dipole pattern in the west Antarctic, whereas the pattern induced by multi-year events is characterized by eastward shift and meridional expansion of the anomaly centers. The lower tropospheric circulation anomalies, guided by Rossby wave trains, are the key mechanism underlying these differences. Sea ice anomalies are modulated by dynamic processes (Ekman transport and thermal advection) and are closely associated with thermodynamic processes (downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation). Compared with single-year events, multi-year events tend to generate more persistent and stronger Rossby wave trains, which maintain and intensify the pIOD impacts on Antarctic sea ice. Furthermore, quantitative sea ice mass budget analysis reveals that changes in sea ice mass are mainly attributed to dynamic processes, basal melting, lateral melting and snow-to-ice conversion.

     

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