S2S模式对2023年夏季中国华北极端高温的次季节预测技巧及其可预报性来源

Subseasonal prediction skills of S2S models for the extreme heat event over North China in summer 2023 and the sources of predictability

  • 摘要: 2023年6月—7月,华北地区经历破纪录的极端高温事件,多个气象站气温突破40℃,这次高温事件存在6月14—18日(P1)、21—25日(P2)和6月30日—7月3日(P3)3次相对独立过程。本研究基于次季节至季节预报(S2S)计划中ECMWF和CMA回报数据,通过对局地温度收支方程、地表能量方程和大尺度环流的诊断分析,评估ECMWF和CMA动力模式对2023年华北3次极端高温过程空间分布和强度的预测能力,并揭示模式预测误差来源以及极端高温的可预报性来源。结果表明:(1)ECMWF和CMA对P1、P2和P3的地表气温(SAT)异常的预测时效分别为10—11、12—14以及3—6 d,但均低估了SAT异常的强度,尤其是P3时期;(2)P1、P2(P3)超过15(5)d时效后,模式难以捕捉欧亚大陆中、高纬Rossby波列,造成华北局地高压异常位置以及强度的预测偏差;(3)模式对华北局地高压异常的预测偏差导致其对局地物理过程和地表气温异常预测的偏差。P1、P3过程中局地短波辐射以及长波辐射的低估,导致以非绝热加热项为主要贡献的温度局地变化呈现为负偏差,P2过程中起主要贡献的绝热加热被低估,导致SAT被低估。本研究强调了中、高纬次季节大气遥相关波列是华北次季节极端高温的重要可预报性来源,模式能否对其捕捉是进一步提升华北高温预测水平的关键。

     

    Abstract: During June—July 2023, North China (NC) experienced a record-breaking extreme high temperature (EHT) event with temperatures exceeding 40℃ at many meteorological stations. This event consisted of three relatively distinct processes, occurring during June 14—18 (P1), June 21—25 (P2), and June 30—July 3 (P3), respectively. Using hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) within the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project and diagnostic analysis of the local temperature budget, surface energy budget, and large-scale atmospheric circulation, this study evaluates the performance of ECMWF and CMA dynamic models in forecasting the spatial distribution and intensity of the three EHT processes, and further reveals the sources of forecast errors and predictability. The results indicate that: (1) ECMWF and CMA models can predict the spatial distribution of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over NC for P1, P2 and P3 with lead time of 10—11, 12—14, and 3—6 d, respectively. However, both models underestimate the amplitude of SAT anomalies, especially during P3; (2) when the forecast lead time exceeds 15 d for P1 and P2, and 5 d for P3, both models fail to capture features of the mid-to-high-latitude Rossby wave train over Eurasia, resulting in prediction biases in both the location and intensity of localized high-pressure anomalies over NC; (3) prediction biases of the localized high-pressure anomalies over NC further induce biases in the forecast of local physical processes and SAT anomalies. During P1 and P3, the models' underestimation of both shortwave and longwave radiation leads to local negative temperature tendency biases, with diabatic heating being the primary contributor. In contrast, during P2, the underestimation of adiabatic heating is primarily responsible for the cold bias in predicted SAT. This study highlights the mid-to-high-latitude subseasonal Rossby wave train teleconnection as a critical source of predictability for subseasonal EHT in NC, suggesting that better representation of this wave pattern is a key to improving EHT prediction skills over NC.

     

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