弱天气尺度强迫下郑州突发局地强降水的触发机制及多源新型观测资料应用

Triggering mechanism of abrupt local heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou under weak synoptic-scale forcing and application of multi-source novel observations

  • 摘要: 为揭示弱天气尺度强迫背景下城市极端短时强降水的环境条件、触发机制与可预报性,基于地面加密自动站、ERA5再分析资料、多家数值模式短期预报产品,以及FY-4B静止卫星、双偏振雷达、风廓线雷达、云雷达和GNSS/PWV等多源新型观测资料,对2024年7月22日郑州主城区一次突发强降水过程进行综合分析。结果表明:该过程发生在副热带高压边缘的弱强迫背景下,500 hPa为偏西气流,低层维持一致的偏南暖湿气流,地面受暖低压控制;强降水前,郑州处于极端高温高湿环境,对流有效位能超5000 J/kg,整层可降水量高于80 mm,大气不稳定性持续增强。FY-4B红外云图显示,强降水由豫北中尺度对流系统(MCS)强烈发展并南下所致,成熟阶段冷云显著扩展,强降水集中于MCS前部亮温梯度大值区。进一步分析表明,强降水由边界层过程分阶段触发:城市热岛效应诱发主城区γ中尺度地面低压,触发初始对流;其冷池出流与环境暖湿气流辐合,激发新生对流并伴随持久小尺度涡旋;随后豫北雷暴高压南压,强烈抬升前缘暖湿空气,引发大范围对流爆发。多家数值模式在短期预报中均漏报该过程,反映其对弱强迫下中小尺度系统演变的模拟能力不足,而高时空分辨率观测展现出一定的短临预警价值:风廓线雷达在降水前2—3 h监测到4—5 km西风急流建立,0—6 km风垂直切变由弱增强至中等,利于高对流有效位能(CAPE)环境中对流组织化;GNSS/PWV在降水前1 h骤增超4 mm,表征低层水汽快速辐合抬升;云雷达观测到云底高度急剧下降,标志云微物理过程进入强降水转化临界阶段。在弱天气尺度强迫背景下,城市热岛、冷池出流与雷暴高压共同构成的多阶段触发是此次极端短时强降水发生的关键机制;多源新型观测所揭示的连续演变信号,为提升此类局地突发性强降水的短临预警能力提供了关键依据。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the environmental conditions, triggering mechanisms, and predictability of extreme short-term heavy rainfall in urban areas under weak synoptic-scale forcing, a comprehensive analysis of an abrupt heavy precipitation event that occurred in the main urban area of Zhengzhou on 22 July 2024 is conducted. Data from dense automatic weather stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, short-term forecast products from various numerical models, and multi-source novel observational data including FY-4B geostationary satellite imagery, dual-polarization radar, wind profile radar, cloud radar, and GNSS/PWV are used. The results indicate that this event occurred at the edge of the western Pacific subtropical high, where the synoptic forcing was weak. Westerlies prevailed at 500 hPa, while warm and moist southerlies maintained in the lower levels. The surface was controlled by a warm low-pressure system. Prior to the heavy rainfall, the environment in Zhengzhou was characterized by extreme high-temperature and high-humidity, with the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) exceeding 5000 J/kg and the Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) above 80 mm, indicating persistent enhancement of atmospheric instability. FY-4B infrared imagery revealed that the heavy precipitation was caused by the development and southward movement of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) originated from northern Henan. During its mature stage, the MCS exhibited a significant expansion of cold cloud, with the heavy rainfall concentrated in the region of large brightness temperature gradient at the leading edge of the MCS. Further analysis suggests the rainfall was triggered by boundary-layer processes in a phased manner, i.e., the urban heat island effect initially induced a meso-γ-scale surface low pressure over the main urban area, triggering the initial convection. The outflow from the cold pool of this convective system converged with the ambient warm, moist flow, triggering new convections accompanied by persistent small-scale vortices. The thunderstorm high pressure from northern Henan moved southward, forcing the rise of the leading-edge warm, moist air and triggering a widespread convective outbreak. Short-term forecasts from several numerical models failed to predict this event, reflecting their limitations in simulating the evolution of meso- and micro-scale systems under weak synoptic-scale forcing. In contrast, high spatiotemporal resolution observations demonstrate significant values for nowcasting. Wind profile radar detected the establishment of a westerly jet stream at 4—5 km altitude 2—3 h before the precipitation, and the 0—6 km vertical wind shear increased from weak to moderate, favoring convective organization in the high-CAPE environment. GNSS/PWV data showed a sharp increase of over 4 mm about 1 h before the rainfall, indicating rapid low-level moisture convergence and uplift. Cloud radar observations captured a sharp decrease in cloud base height, signaling the critical phase of microphysical processes transitioning into heavy precipitation formation. In conclusion, under weak synoptic-scale forcing, the multi-stage triggering mechanism that involves urban heat island, cold pool outflow, and thunderstorm high pressure was the key to the occurrence of this extreme short-duration heavy rainfall. The continuous evolutionary signals revealed by multi-source novel observations provide crucial information for improving the nowcasting capability of such kind of abrupt local heavy precipitation events.

     

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