拉尼娜事件发展期夏季纬向位置对中国南方降水的影响

Impact of the longitudinal position of La Niña during its developing summer on precipitation over South China

  • 摘要: 基于美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)提供的逐月海表温度扩展重建(ERSST.v5)资料,分析了1950—2023年拉尼娜事件发展年夏季,其海表温度负异常中心的纬向位置对中国东部降水的影响及其物理机制。结果表明,当拉尼娜事件海表温度负异常中心偏东时,中国南方易出现“北正南负”的偶极型降水异常模态,具体表现为长江流域降水显著偏多,华南地区降水明显偏少;而当海表温度负异常中心偏西时,中国南方未出现显著降水异常。分析表明,海表温度负异常中心偏东的拉尼娜事件常伴随赤道西太平洋的正海表温度异常,增强了海表温度纬向梯度,激发出更强盛的赤道东风异常,进而有利于中国南海附近诱发异常反气旋环流,将水汽输送至长江流域,导致降水增多,华南地区则受反气旋下沉气流控制,降水偏少;海表温度负异常中心偏西的拉尼娜事件的海表温度纬向梯度较弱,赤道东风响应和环流异常不显著,因而对中国东部降水影响有限。本研究揭示了拉尼娜事件纬向位置对中国夏季降水分布的关键作用,为理解ENSO与中国降水关系的复杂性提供了新的物理依据,对提升汛期降水预测能力具有重要科学意义和应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Based on the monthly Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature dataset (ERSST.v5) provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this study investigates how the longitudinal position of La Niña affects summer precipitation in eastern China during its developing phase from 1950 to 2023. The underlying physical mechanisms are also explored. The results show that an eastward shift of the La Niña cold center tends to induce a meridional dipole precipitation anomaly pattern over southern China, characterizing by increased rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin and decreased rainfall over South China. In contrast, no significant precipitation anomalies are observed in eastern China when La Niña shifts westward. Further analysis reveals that the eastward-shifted La Niña events are often accompanied by positive Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the equatorial western Pacific, which strengthen the zonal SSTA gradient and enhance equatorial easterly wind anomalies. These changes are favorable for the development of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation near the South China Sea, which enhances moisture transport to the Yangtze River Basin while suppressing convection over South China via its subsiding branch. Conversely, westward-shifted La Niña events are featured by a weaker zonal SSTA gradient and negligent atmospheric circulation responses, thus exerting little influence on precipitation in eastern China. This study highlights the crucial role of La Niña's longitudinal position in modulating summer rainfall patterns over China and provides new physical insights into the ENSO-precipitation relationship. These findings offer important implications for improving flood-season precipitation prediction.

     

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