超强台风“摩羯”雨滴谱特征在定量降水估计中的应用

Application of raindrop size distribution characteristics of super typhoon “Yagi” in quantitative precipitation estimation

  • 摘要: 超强台风雨滴谱特征对雷达反演降水应用于台风短时临近(短临)预警中具有重要作用,利用海南12个国家级地面气象站的雨滴谱数据,分析了超强台风“摩羯”眼壁、内雨带和外雨带的雨滴谱特征,并探索其在雷达定量降水估计中的应用价值。结果表明:标准化Γ分布拟合谱能够较好地表征台风不同结构的雨滴谱特征,各结构区域平均降水谱均呈单峰型。“摩羯”的降水形成机制以暖云-冰相混合降水为主,中雨滴对各台风结构区域雨强的贡献均处于主导地位。而眼壁区域相较同强度台风具有更小的雨滴,这些雨滴对总雨强做更大贡献,且使得“摩羯”Z-R关系中系数A更小。拟合的本地化参数应用于海口新一代天气雷达定量降水估计,效果优于业务默认方案,相关系数达0.9264,归一化平均绝对误差(NMAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别降低10.24%和0.9,引入地面雨量计订正结果与实况更接近。

     

    Abstract: The characteristics of rain Drop Size Distribution (DSD) in super typhoons are critical for the application of radar-retrieved precipitation to typhoon short-term forecasting. Based on disdrometer data collected at 12 national surface stations in Hainan, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics of DSD within the eyewall, inner rainbands, and outer rainbands of super typhoon “Yagi”, and further investigates their application potential in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) using weather radar. The results indicate that the normalized Γ distribution can effectively characterize DSD features across distinct structural regions of the typhoon, while the mean precipitation spectrum in each region exhibits a distinct unimodal pattern. The precipitation formation mechanism of super typhoon “Yagi” is dominated by warm-cloud and ice-phase mixed microphysical processes, with medium-size raindrops making the dominant contribution to the rainfall intensity across all typhoon structural regions. Compared with typhoons of similar intensity, super typhoon “Yagi” exhibits smaller raindrop particles in its eyewall region. These raindrops make a greater contribution to the total rainfall intensity and lower the coefficient A in the corresponding Z-R relationship, which further promotes the formation of intense precipitation. Applying the fitted local parameters to QPE using the new-generation weather radar in Haikou yields better performance than the operational default scheme: The correlation coefficient reaches 0.9264, the Normalized Mean Absolute Error (NMAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decrease by 10.24% and 0.9, respectively, and the retrieval results are more consistent with actual observations after incorporating surface rain gauge correction.

     

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