CMA-CPSv3对北半球平流层爆发性增温事件的次季节预测能力评估

Assessment of the subseasonal prediction skill of CMA-CPSv3 for sudden stratospheric warmings in the Northern Hemisphere

  • 摘要: 平流层爆发性增温(Sudden Stratospheric Warmings,SSW)事件是平流层-对流层耦合的关键过程,其异常信号可下传至对流层并影响天气气候,是次季节到季节尺度(Subseasonal to Seasonal,S2S)预测可预报性的重要来源。基于中国气象局第三代气候模式预测业务系统(China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 3,CMA-CPSv3)次季节预测子系统2008—2022年的历史回算和2023年至今的实时预测数据,系统评估了CMA-CPSv3对SSW事件的预测能力。结果表明:2008—2024年北半球共发生11次SSW事件,CMA-CPSv3对不同SSW事件的预测能力存在差异,平均可预报时间约为3—4候。合成分析显示该系统能够提前约3候预测出与SSW事件相关的温度场及环流场的演变特征,当起报时间提前超过3候时,预测的异常信号显著减弱。进一步分析指出,CMA-CPSv3中SSW事件相关纬向风环流的预测误差,与该系统对SSW爆发前从对流层向平流层上传的行星波活动强度的预测误差密切相关。当起报时间提前至3候以上时,该系统倾向于低估SSW爆发前上传的行星波活动强度,从而制约其对SSW事件的预测能力。

     

    Abstract: Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) are critical processes in stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Their signals can propagate downward to the troposphere, influencing weather and climate and serving as an important source of predictability for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. Based on hindcasts (2008—2022) and real-time prediction data (2023 to present) from the China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 3 (CMA-CPSv3), this study systematically evaluates the prediction skill of CMA-CPSv3 for SSW events. A total of 11 SSW events occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during 2008—2024. Predictability varies among events, with an average predictable lead time of approximately 3—4 pentads. Composite analysis reveals that CMA-CPSv3 can capture the evolution characteristics of temperature and circulation fields associated with SSW about 3 pentads in advance. However, when the lead time exceeds 3 pentads, the intensity of the predicted anomalies weakens significantly. Further analysis shows that the prediction errors in the zonal wind circulation associated with SSW events are closely related to prediction errors in the intensity of planetary wave activity propagating upward from the troposphere to the stratosphere prior to SSW onset. When the lead time exceeds 3 pentads, the system tends to underestimate the intensity of planetary wave activity before SSW onset, thereby limiting its prediction skill for SSW events.

     

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