东北冷涡暖季降水的时空分布特征研究

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of warm season precipitation associated with Northeast Cold Vortices

  • 摘要: 目的:东北冷涡是影响我国北方暖季(4—9月)降水的关键环流系统,常诱发局地暴雨和强对流天气。冷涡系统影响下的降水具有特殊的空间分布和时间演变特征,对其开展深入研究具有重要的科学意义与预报参考价值。资料和方法:基于2001—2019年暖季ERA5逐小时再分析资料与全球多源融合校准降水数据集,以成熟阶段的东北冷涡为研究对象,采用以冷涡中心为参照的动态相对坐标系合成方法,分析了不同强度与尺度背景下冷涡降水的时空分布特征及其环境场配置。结果:结果表明,暖季冷涡降水在相对坐标系下呈现显著的非对称性,强冷涡更易形成紧凑的近心型雨带,弱冷涡则具有松散的外围雨带;大冷涡普遍对应更宽广雨带和更强降水中心。冷涡降水在东北三省整体遵循“清晨次峰、午后主峰”的日变化规律,强冷涡具有稳定的“双峰”特征,而弱冷涡和小冷涡的日变化趋向单一“午后热对流型”。冷涡背景下的持续性强降水(PHR)事件呈“内核弱、外围强”的非对称分布特征,东南象限频次最高,西南象限强度最强,且以短时过程为主,极端事件(≥5 h)仅出现于冷涡南侧。结论:总体上,不同强度和尺度冷涡对应的降水分布特征存在明显差异,说明冷涡本体属性与降水空间结构密切相关。上述结果从相对坐标系视角细化揭示了东北冷涡成熟阶段降水及PHR事件的空间分布特征,可为冷涡背景下高风险降水落区识别和精细化预报提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) is a key circulation system driving warm-season precipitation patterns in northern China, frequently triggering local heavy rainfall and severe convection. To better understand the fine-scale structure of precipitation within NECV systems, investigating the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of warm-season NECV precipitation is of great scientific significance and provides valuable reference for forecasting. Using hourly ERA5 reanalysis and Global multi-source Merging-and-Calibration Precipitation dataset for the warm seasons (April–September) from 2001 to 2019, this study focuses on the mature stage of NECVs. A dynamic, center-referenced relative coordinate composite method is employed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and environmental configurations of NECV precipitation under different intensities and scales. The results show that warm-season NECV precipitation exhibits pronounced asymmetry in the relative coordinate system. Statistical results indicate that strong NECVs are more likely to form compact, near-center rainbands, whereas weak NECVs tend to produce loose, peripheral patterns, and large-scale NECVs generally correspond to broader rainbands and stronger core intensity. Diurnally, NECV precipitation in Northeast China generally follows a “secondary morning peak, primary afternoon peak” pattern. Strong NECVs maintain this bimodal structure, while weak and small-scale NECVs shift toward a single afternoon peak associated with thermal convection. Persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events under NECV background exhibit an asymmetric “weak inner core, strong periphery” distribution. They occur most frequently in the southeast quadrant, while the southwest quadrant shows the strongest event intensity. Furthermore, these events are predominantly short-duration processes, with extreme cases (≥5 h) occurring only in the southern sectors of the vortex. Overall, different intensities and scales of NECVs correspond to distinct precipitation distribution characteristics, indicating a close relationship between the intrinsic properties of the vortex and the spatial structure of precipitation. From the perspective of a relative coordinate system, these findings refine the spatial differentiation characteristics of precipitation and PHR events during the mature stage of NECVs, providing a scientific basis for identifying high-risk precipitation areas and improving fine-scale forecasts under NECV conditions.

     

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