南海夏季风爆发早晚对华南“龙舟水”可能影响

Possible impacts of the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon on the Dragon-boat Rainfall in South China

  • 摘要: 南海夏季风爆发是华南“龙舟水”形成和加强的最关键因素之一,针对季风爆发时间异常对华南“龙舟水”降水、强度的影响和机理进行研究,为相关气象服务和气候预测提供技术支撑。根据国家气候中心对1961—2025年南海夏季风爆发监测资料,华南192个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR日尺度大气环流再分析资料、月尺度海表温度资料,首先分析华南夏季风爆发时间异常与华南“龙舟水”期间降水、暴雨过程频次、强度等的关系,然后采用相关、合成等方法分析了南海夏季风爆发异常早年(6 a)、晚年(10 a)以及异常早年典型年1996、2008、2011年华南“龙舟水”期间以及前期大气环流、水汽输送的演变特征和前期冬、春季海温异常特征。结果表明,近65 a来,南海夏季风爆发日期存在提前趋势且与华南“龙舟水”期间(5月21日—6月20日)降水存在反相关关系,这种提前和反相关关系在1994年后更加明显。南海夏季风爆发异常早年,华南“龙舟水”期间更易出现强等级降水过程;而爆发异常晚年,暴雨过程以弱等级为主。南海夏季风爆发异常早年,在第25—第29候,东亚大槽偏强,冷空气偏强;第28候,西太平洋副热带高压(副高)存在明显减弱的过程,同时在低层,中国南海从之前的偏东风转为偏西风控制,有利于阿拉伯海—孟加拉湾—中南半岛—中国南海的偏西、西南暖湿气流向华南输送,而华南北部存在北风异常。南海夏季风爆发异常早年华南“龙舟水”期间,高层南亚高压明显偏弱,中层中国中东部位势高度场明显降低,东亚大槽加强。低层菲律宾以东存在反气旋环流,有利于西太平洋、中国南海的水汽向华南输送,华南为偏南、偏北气流的交汇,存在水汽辐合,且华南上空垂直运动加强,这种高低层大气环流配置有利于华南“龙舟水”期间降水明显偏多。而南海夏季风爆发晚年则相反。1996、2011年为南海夏季风爆发异常早年,但夏季风分别在第27候、第28候出现中断。在“龙舟水”期间,副高较前期明显加强,同时从孟加拉湾到中国南海水汽输送明显减弱,东亚大槽明显减弱,冷空气异常偏弱,没有冷暖空气在华南交汇,导致1996、2011年华南“龙舟水”异常偏少。2008年南海夏季风为爆发异常早年,爆发后从阿拉伯海—孟加拉湾—中南半岛—中国南海一直存在偏西、西南气流异常强水汽输送,“龙舟水”期间,副高明显减弱东退,冷空气南下,冷暖交汇在华南,导致2008年华南“龙舟水”异常偏多。南海夏季风爆发异常早年前期冬春季,赤道中东太平洋海温类似La Niña的海温异常分布,中国南海海温显著升高,而赤道印度洋及鄂霍次克海以东的西北太平洋海温均偏低,有利于南海夏季风爆发偏早,向南海、华南水汽输送偏强,进而影响华南“龙舟水”期间降水偏多。综上所述,通过研究南海夏季风爆发早晚对华南“龙舟水”可能影响得到一些有意义的结果,为相关预测和服务提供技术参考。

     

    Abstract: The onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) is one of the most critical factors affecting the formation and intensification of the Dragon-boat Rainfall in South China. Investigating the impacts and mechanisms of anomalous monsoon onset timing on the precipitation and intensity of the Dragon-boat Rainfall in South China can provides technical support for relevant meteorological services and climate prediction. Based on the SCSSM onset monitoring data from the National Climate Center for 1961—2025, daily precipitation data from 192 national meteorological stations across South China, daily NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data, we first analyze the relationship of the anomalous onset timing of the SCSSM with precipitation as well as frequency and intensity of heavy rain events during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period in South China. Using correlation and composite methods, we then analyze the evolution characteristics of atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period and the preceding period. Anomalous SST characteristics in the preceding winter and spring for early-onset years (6 a), late-onset years (10 a), and typical early-onset years (1996, 2008, 2011) are also analyzed. The results show that over the past 65 years, the SCSSM onset date has exhibited an advancing trend and is negatively correlated with precipitation during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period (May 21 to June 20) in South China. Both the advancing trend and the negative correlation have become more pronounced after 1994. In early-onset years, South China is more prone to high-intensity precipitation events during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period; in late-onset years, heavy rain events are predominantly of low intensity. In early-onset years, during pentads 25—29, the East Asian trough is stronger, accompanied by enhanced cold air activities; during pentad 28, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) weakens significantly, while low-level winds over the South China Sea shift from easterly to westerly, favoring the transport of warm and moist westerly—southwesterly airflows from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea to South China, with northerly anomalies over northern South China. During the Dragon-boat Rainfall period in early-onset years, the upper-level South Asian high is significantly weaker, the mid-level geopotential height over central and eastern China is markedly lower, and the East Asian trough is stronger. At lower levels, an anticyclonic circulation to the east of the Philippines is favorable for water vapor transport from the western Pacific and South China Sea to South China, where the convergence of southerly and northerly airflows results in moisture convergence, and vertical motion over South China is enhanced. This configuration of upper- and lower-level circulation promotes significantly increased precipitation over South China during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period. The opposite is true for late-onset years. In the early-onset years of 1996 and 2011, the SCSSM experienced interruptions during pentads 27 and 28, respectively. During the Dragon-boat Rainfall period of these two years, the WPSH strengthened notably compared to the preceding period, while water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea weakened significantly, the East Asian trough weakened markedly, and the cold air activity was anomalously weak with no convergence of cold and warm air over South China. As a result, anomalously low Dragon-boat Rainfall occurred in 1996 and 2011. In the early-onset year of 2008, anomalously strong westerly—southwesterly water vapor transport from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, the Indochina Peninsula and the South China Sea persisted after the onset. During the Dragon-boat Rainfall period, the WPSH weakened and retreated eastward, and cold air moved southward, with cold and warm air converging over South China, resulting in anomalously high Dragon-boat Rainfall in 2008. In the preceding winter and spring of early-onset years, SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific exhibited a La Niña pattern, with significantly high SST in the South China Sea and low SST in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the northwestern Pacific to the east of the Okhotsk Sea. This pattern is favorable for an early SCSSM onset and stronger water vapor transport to the South China Sea and South China, and thereby contributes to increased precipitation during the Dragon-boat Rainfall period in South China. In summary, this study has yielded meaningful results regarding possible impacts of the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon on the Dragon-Boat Rainfall over South China, providing technical references for related operational forecasting and services.

     

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