基于DETR模型的东北地区冬半年暖锋活动异常及其可能成因

Anomalous warm front activities and associated circulation characteristics in Northeast China in winter half-year based on the DETR model

  • 摘要:
    目的 暖锋是东北地区重要的天气系统之一,其活动与冬半年大风、降水等重要天气息息相关,但由于缺乏高精度、长时间段暖锋数据集,针对该区域暖锋活动长期气候研究仍较为有限。资料和方法使用1979—2021年ERA-5再分析资料,基于深度学习模型DETR的暖锋自动识别方法获得了43年暖锋活动数据集,并通过与人工分析结果和传统客观方法识别结果的对比,验证了该方法在暖锋识别中的可靠性;在此基础上,研究了东北地区冬半年暖锋的活动特征及其异常的可能成因。
    结果 结果表明东北地区是东亚大陆冬半年暖锋出现频数最多、活动最强的区域之一,其暖锋活动强度有明显的年际变化,并存在2—3年的变化周期。合成分析表明东北地区暖锋活动强年,欧亚大陆上空存在明显的东大西洋/西俄罗斯(EATL/WRUS)遥相关波列,且该波列呈现出负位相特征,东北地区上空出现500 hPa负位势高度异常,东亚大槽加深,同时高空急流加强,大气斜压性增强。进一步发现东北地区暖锋活动异常与北大西洋三极子(NAT)模态密切相关,结合波作用通量诊断和LBM线性斜压模式敏感性试验可知,
    结论 NAT模态中的中低纬度海温异常激发对流层中上层的Rossby波列,该波列自欧洲向东传播,经里海传至中国东北地区,从而影响东北地区的暖锋活动强度。

     

    Abstract: Warm fronts are one of the important weather systems in Northeast China, and their activities are closely related to important weather events such as strong winds and precipitation in winter half-year. However, due to the lack of high-precision and long-term warm front datasets, long-term climatological studies on warm front activities in this region remain relatively limited. Using ERA-5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021, this study obtains a 43-year dataset of warm front activities based on an automatic warm front identification method using the Detection Transformer (DETR) deep learning model. The reliability of this method is verified by comparing it with manual analysis and traditional objective methods. Based on this dataset, the characteristics of warm front activities in Northeast China during the winter half-year and the possible causes of its anomalies are investigated. The results indicate that Northeast China is one of the regions with the highest frequency and strongest activity of warm fronts in winter half-year on the East Asian continent. The intensity of warm front activities exhibits significant interannual variability, featuring a variation period of 2—3 years. Composite analysis shows that in the years of strong warm front activities in Northeast China, the East Atlantic/West Russia (EATL/WRUS) teleconnection pattern over Eurasia exhibits a distinct negative phase and negative geopotential height anomalies appear at 500 hPa over Northeast China. It indicates a deepened East Asian trough, accompanied by an intensified upper-level jet stream and enhanced atmospheric baroclinicity. Furthermore, it is found that the warm front activity anomalies in Northeast China are closely related to the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) mode. Combined with wave activity flux diagnostics and Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) sensitive experiments, it is shown that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the middle and low latitudes of the NAT mode trigger a Rossby wave train in the mid-to-upper troposphere. This wave train propagates eastward from Europe, passes over the Caspian Sea, and reaches Northeast China, thereby affecting the intensity of warm front activities in Northeast China.

     

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