A TEST OF STATISTICAL FOR ECASTING SCHEME FORWESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON TRACKS USING NUMERICAL FORECASTING RESULTS AS PREDICTORS

A The multiple linear regression equations derived by MOS technique were tested for forecasting Western Pacific typhoon tracks. Numerically predicted 500 mb geopotential height at 27 grid points in the north of typhoon and parameters showing the state of typhoon were selected as predictors. Two kinds of regression equations derived with different predictands were described. In the first kind, the predictands are the displacement of typhoon at intervals of 12 hrs. In the second kind, the predictands are the correction amount of the displacement error, of typhoon numerically predicted. But there were only 84 statistical samples,, therefor it might have some influence on the forecasting stability of the scheme.