ON THE POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE WARMING ON RICE PRODUCTION IN CHINA

The possible impacts of climate warming on rice production in China are studied by using numerical experiments of a rice simulation model (ORYZA1) based on climate change scenarios projected from GCMs (GFDL, UKMO and MPI). A stochastic weather generator is used to make the projected climatic change scenarios suitable to the input of ORYZ A1. The results show that, when CO2 concent ration in the atmosphere is doubled, the duration of rice growing season would be lengt hened by 6～11 days and the accumulated temperature would increase by about 220～330℃·d. The possibility of cool injury in ricey ield forming period would decrease while that of heat stress would increase. Rice yield would decrease if cultivars and farming practice are unchanged. If the dates of rice development stages could be maintained unchanged through variety adjustment, the rice yield in most of the areas would decrease, the decrements are considerably less than that when cultivars and farming practice are unchanged.