FUZZY SET METHODS AND ITS APPLICATION IN MONTHLY DYNAMICAL EXTENDED-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST

According to 17 forecast cases of Model T63L16 in spring 1996 and 1997,a group of new weight coefficients are calculated by use of Fuzzy Set Theories and Methods.The new weight coefficients can significantly improve ensemble forecast skill and reflect distributed features of forecast results.On the basis of error features in spring,the results are better through error correction using the new weight coefficients.