INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF SST PATTERN INDEXES IN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS PREDICTION

Account ing for improvement of the summer rainfall prediction in China on the basis of the sea surface temperature(SST) data,distribution pattern indexes of SST in North Pacific are defined,which can represent inter annual variation of SST and El Nino and La Nina events.It is found that there are stronger correlation between the indexes and summer rainfall in China.Regarding the indexes as main predictors and combining them wift at mospheic circulation indexes and rainfall oscillation,a statistical prediction model of summer rainfall in China has been built.The results of simulating and 36 predicting experiments 6 months ahead show that the variation of SST can be predicted by the model and can provide basis for predicting summer rainfall in China.