PREDICTION TEST OF NONLINEAR DYNAMIC MODEL FOR YEARLY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST RAID AREA OF CHINA

Based on the yearly precipitation series of typical 16 stat ions in the northwest arid area of China, nonlinear dynamic model is introduced to test prediction for dependent and independent samples, and the selection of the model parameters and nonlinear functions is discussed. The preliminary results show that the model can better fit the trend of precipitation variation and has certain ability to forecast, whose prediction effect is better than auto-regression model.