STUDY ON INTERPRETATION PREDICTION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PRODUCTS BASED ON MODULAR FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK

At present,statistical prediction techniques remain dominant in the interpretation of numerical weather prediction products, such as methods of model output statistics (MOS) and prefect prediction (PP).Since the late 1980s the artificial neural network (ANN) characterized by such properties as self-adaptive learning and non-linear mapping has been investigated extensively and it has become a hot topic in a lot of scientific fields. Research of artificial and wavelet neural networks for practical purpose has been carried out in the meteorological sciences at home and abroad since the 1990s. In recent years the fuzzy neural net from the combination of the ANN and fuzzy reasoning system has rapidly developed and put into use in such fields as artificial intelligence, signal recognition, data integration and management-decision-making because it has the ability of ANN self-adaptive learning and nonlinear mapping and of logic reasoning, language and computation of the fuzzy mathematic system. Up to now, however, little has been reported of applications of the fuzzy neural networks to meteorological prediction and analysis. For this reason, the authors attempt to establish a model for the interpretation of medium-ramge numerical weather prediction products in the context of modular fuzzy neural network.