ADVANCE IN SEASONAL DYNAMICAL PREDICTION OPERATION IN CHINA

Application of dynamical model in seasonal-interannual climate prediction is currently a developing direction of clima e prediction in the world. After more than 8 years' research and development, the first generation of dynamical climate model prediction operation system has been established in National Climate Center (NCC), Chinese Meteorological Administration. It consists of a global coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation model (CGCM), a high-resolution East Asian regional climate model (noted as RegCM_NCC) and five simplified ENSO prediction models (noted as SAOMS), which can be used to perform climate predictions on seasonal-interan-nualtime scales. RegCM_NCC nested with CGCM can provide high- resolution seasonal prediction of climate over East Asia. The hindcast experiment results of the CGCM for the summer of 1982-2000 show that the model has reasonably good performance in predicting the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the climate over East Asia on seasonal time scale. By nesting with CGCM, 10-year hindcast experiments of RegCM_NCC have been undertaken for the summer of 1991-2000. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal rain belts over China. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001-2003 with CGCM as well as the nested regional climate model have shown certain prediction capabilities. In particular, the prediction of 2003 summer was successfully made with the much above-nor-mal precipitation in the regions between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River valleys.