STUDY FOR FORMATION MECHANISM OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE MEIYU FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE AND DOWNSTREAM OF YANGTZE RIVER AND THEORIES AND METHODS OF THEIR DETECTION AND PREDICTION

The project on study for formation mechanism and theories and methods of detection and prediction of severe weather disasters in China from National Key Basic Research Development Program has been studied by all the scientists of this project for five years. It has been made important progresses including six aspects related to heavy rainfall: (1) Muti-scales physical models of heavy rainf all within the Meiyu front based on the real-time observed data have been proposed; (2) It has established a synoptic model for heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front; (3) Meiyu front is Meiyu frontal system which consists of multi-synoptic systems with different spacetime scales. It has structure characteristics of subtropical frontal system which is between structure characteristics of extra-tropical frontal system and ITCZ. However, sometime it has dual-peaks structure in the middle-downstream of Yangtze River. And its mainenance and development mechanism has also been discussed. (4) Several kinds of quantitative remote sensing retrieval theories and methods have been proposed for meso-scale heavy rainfall; (5) Dual-Dopplor detecting methods and retrieval theories for meso scale heavy rainfall have successfully been studied. (6) The meso scale heavy rainfall numerical prediction model system with 3Dvar has been developed. The above progresses showed that the project on heavy rainfall study has been reached to the goals and finished the tasks in the last five years. It is substantial scientific base for advancing deeply studying of heavy rainfall in China.