PRIMARY VERIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT ON THE EXTRA-SEASONALLY PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC-OCEANIC COUPLED MODEL IN RAINING SEASON

In the present paper,extraseasonal hindcast experiments and verifications of climate anomalies in China during the raining seasons of 1991-2001 (tot ally 11 years) were conducted based on a global at mospherico-ceanic coupled model.Aset of indexes charact erizing different predictive skills was utilized to assess systematically and quantit at ively the predictive perform ance of the model.The model verification has indicated that the model has certain capability in predicting seasonally rainfall and temperature over China as well as the large-scale circulation in the North Hemisphere in summer time.The model prediction is better than climatological prediction and persistence prediction.The model performance of summer rainfall prediction varies in different regions of China.In general,the prediction of rainfall tendency in both East China and West China are reasonable.In view of anomaly correlation coefficient,the model skill in seasonal prediction of the summer temperature are relatively higher in West China than in East China.