LONG TERM CLIMATE CHANGE NUMERICAL SIMULATION IN EAST ASIA

A 10-year regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) driven by large-scale conditions of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses.Winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined bet ween simulation and observation.The results showed that:(1) the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation,temperature and moisture transfer at middle and low levels.The simulated winter and summer meansea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data.The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates,it also simulated the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates,but it overest imated the summer mean pre-cipitation over North China.The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was prior to that in summer.(2) the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature.The anomaly correlation coefficients of geopotential height and temperature at low and high levels between simulation and observation were high.(3) the model showed different ability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events.It well simulated the anomaly of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995,but could not simulate that in 1998 (4).The MM5V3 had the ability to simulate the regional climate change,and could beused for long term regional climate simulation.