DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES AND HINDCAST EXPERIMENTS OF SPRING SST ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ensemble canonical correlation prediction (E-CCP) model for seasonal precipitation anomaly,diagnostic analyses and hindcast experiments were made on summer (JJA) precipitation in China for thesety pical years,such as 1998,1999 and 2000,using global spring sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) as pre-dictor fields.The results show that the correlation between global spring (MAM) SSTA and summer precipitation in China is obvious.To a greatextent,MAMSSTAs determine the patterns of summer rainbelt in China.The ECCP scheme with an area-factor performs well in the forecasting of summer precipitation in China.It not only canmake out some typical space modes and their time changes in precipitation and SST field,but also canreproduce the drought/flood of summer in 1998 and 2000.