Stratospheric temperature changes and ozone recovery in the 21st century

Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from 4 IPCC-AR4 coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS ER、GFDL CM20、NCAR-CCSM3 and UKMO-HadCM3). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC-AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcings of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.