Meso-scale convective weather analysis and severe convective weather forecasting

Meso-scale convective weather analysis involves the synoptic pattern recognition and the evaluation of meso-scale convective systems as well as the objective analysis of dynamical and thermo-dynamical parameters. This paper introduces the technique of meso-scale convective weather composite chart analysis and objective parameter diagnosis, which were used in the operational severe convective weather forecasting in the National Meteorological Center (NMC). We use ingredients-based forecasting methodology which evaluates the four basic conditions (moisture, instability, lifting and wind vertical shear) for well organized deep convective systems. This paper shows how to evaluate the favorable environmental conditions by analyzing the convective weather chart based on observational data and numerical weather prediction output data, and evaluating the dynamical and thermo dynamic conditions evolution through diagnosing the parameters favorable for the occurrence of the severe convective weather in light of numerical weather prediction outputs. The operational analysis test in NMC in 2009 shows that this technique is useful in the severe convective weather forecasting.