Simulative evaluation and projection of air temperatures over central China in the SRES scenarios

Using the multimodel data in Phase 3 of the WCRP’s Coupled Model Project, the average air temperatures over central China in 2011-2100 was simulated based on the SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, and their variation characteristics were analysised. In summary, the simulations could better reflect the linear trends of the temperatures. The simulated warming rate in winter was slightly higher than in summer, while the change trend in the rate of summer warming was opposite to that in the observation sequence. The spatial distribution of the linear trends could be well simulated but with the values higher than observations. Compared with the average over the period from 1961 to 1990, the warming increment in the 21st century was 3.7 ℃ for A2, 3.4 ℃ for A1B and 2.0 ℃ for B1, respectively. Before the mid 21st century, the warming increment in summer was higher than in winter, followed by the bigger increment in winter than in summer until the end of the 21st century with the ones in spring and in autumn being consistent for the two periods.