The development and application of the modern weather forecast in China for the recent 10 years

The modern weather forecast technology in China has made significant progresses due to the development of the theory of atmospheric science, numerical prediction technology, increasingly rich detection means, the application of high performance computer and digital forecast technique in the recent 10 years. On the other hand, it also promoted the forecast service level and ability in China owing to the application of the rapid update cycle assimilation/forecast, ensemble prediction technique, probability forecast and digital forecast tools in the weather forecast. It has played a significant role in meteorological service in meeting the needs of the national disaster prevention and mitigation and safeguarding social economic development and people's life and property. This paper summarized the new technology of modern weather forecast developed by China Meteorological Administration in the recent 10 years, including the technique of the rapid multi-source data update cycle assimilation/forecast based on mesoscale numerical model, ensemble prediction and probabilistic forecast for the uncertainty in extreme and severe weather, as well as the digital forecast tools for the high resolution meteorological elements, and look forward to its future development trend. This would benefit to provide reference to the weather forecast technology developer and decision-maker.