Prediction of future heat-related death risk in China under different climate change scenarios

This study predicts the heat-related excess deaths in the short-term, mid-term and long-term in China under climate change and provides a scientific basis for preventing the heat-related health risk in the future. Based on present-day gridded daily average temperature dataset in China, future daily average temperature datasets under 3 emission scenarios, historical population data, future population data under 3 fertility scenarios and cause of death data, the heat-related exposure-response relationship is simulated and the number of heat-related deaths per day is calculated. The results show that: (1) The average temperature in China will continue to rise in the future, and the increase in northern China will be larger. (2) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China from 1986 to 2005 is approximately 71 (95%CI: 57—85) thousands. (3) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China in the future under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 will increase first and then decrease. At the end of 21 century, the total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths under different scenarios is higher than in the baseline years. (4) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China under different scenarios in the future will show an upward trend in the Huanghuaihai and Chengdu-Chongqing regions. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in northern China will show a downward trend. At the same time, the number in the southeastern coastal area will show a downward trend after the 2030s. Overall, in the context of climate warming, the heat-related risk in China will increase in the future, and it can be effectively suppressed under the RCP2.6 scenario.