Projected changes in activity and impact of associated wind and rainfall of the tropical cyclones landing in China based on RegCM4 downscaling simulations

Life and economy development in coastal areas of China are severely impacted by strong winds and heavy rains caused by landfall tropical cyclones (TCs). In the context of global warming, the prediction of future changes in wind and rainfall associated with TCs is highly useful for disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal areas of China. Based on a set of dynamical downscaling simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by outputs of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models over East Asia, the intensities, tracks, winds and rainfalls of TCs landing in China in the present-day period (1986—2005) are firstly evaluated, and changes in these characteristics at the end of the 21 century (2079—2098) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are then analyzed. Results show that the RegCM4 can reproduce the main features of the observed landfall TCs during 1986—2005, although with some biases. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the numbers of TCs landing in Liaoning province, Shandong province, Jiangsu province, Guangdong province, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Hainan province and the whole China region will increase, with large increases in Liaoning province, Shandong province and Jiangsu province. Compared to that in the present-day, the intensity of TCs after landing in China and the impact of strong winds will increase. In addition, the tracks of landfall TCs tend to move northward, and the rainfall intensity will be stronger in most areas, except those over Shandong Peninsula and its adjacent waters. Overall, stronger and more TCs will land in China in the future. Meanwhile, the wind and rainfall associated with landfall TCs will enhance.