The influences of ocean-atmosphere interactions on the seasonal and subseasonal variations and prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon

This paper reviews the research progress made by Chinese scholars on how ocean-atmosphere interactions influence the seasonal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon, the physical processes involved in the subseasonal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon, and the contributions of ocean-atmosphere interactions to the seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon. The East Asian winter monsoon system is regulated by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Arctic Ocean, as well as Arctic sea ice anomalies. In recent years, the East Asian winter monsoon has exhibited significant subseasonal variations, manifesting as phase reversals within a single winter. These variations are closely related to ocean-atmosphere interactions in different oceanic regions. Considering key ocean-atmosphere interactions significantly enhances the seasonal prediction skills of the East Asian winter monsoon on both seasonal and subseasonal time scales. This paper also discusses some unresolved scientific issues in this field and the development trends in the seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon.