Development of tropical cyclone forecasting technology in China: the history, present situation and future

In the past century, the development of tropical cyclone forecasting technology in China has experienced several main stages, such as cloud identification, weather chart analysis, statistical forecasting, statistics-dynamic forecasting, numerical forecasting and their integrated application. As a result, the comprehensive forecasting capability of tropical cyclone in China has significantly improved in both accuracy and stability, with noticeable stepwise features corresponding to the developments in forecasting technology. Looking forward to the future, tropical cyclone forecasting has entered a new stage to break through the challenges of fine structure forecasting and long lead time forecasting. The integrated development of physical law understanding and artificial intelligence technology is expected to bring a new round of capability leap.