变值法指数律风垂直剖面重构在沿海风场订正中的应用研究

A study on the application of power law wind profile reconstruction by variable value method in coastal wind correction

  • 摘要: 通过对沿海风垂直剖面的准确拟合来获取准确的风低层垂直分布,对大风客观预报、多源风速观测资料融合及风能评估等工作都非常重要。基于沿海32个风塔的观测数据,分析了指数律风剖面中幂指数参数的变化规律,并对比评估了不同指数参数量化方法对风速垂向外推订正的影响,结果表明:沿海幂指数具有复杂时空变异性,其随观测高度、季节和时次的变化而变化,且变化趋势具有空间差异性。考虑风速可通过影响大气稳定度引起幂指数变化,对比发现,幂指数随风速增大呈一致的指数型衰减。相比基于最小二乘的固定值量化方法,采用指数函数最优拟合的随风速波动的幂指数进行风速垂向外推时,外推结果的均方根误差最大可降低约49%,考虑幂指数的变异性可有效提升指数律风廓线的拟合精度。此外,由于幂指数受风速以外其他因素的复杂性影响,指数律风廓线的拟合效果不稳定,还需进一步研究对比机器学习等前沿技术在风场垂向拟合中的应用潜力。

     

    Abstract: Accurate fitting of coastal wind profiles is of great significance for objective forecasting of winds, fusion of multi-source wind speed observations, and wind energy assessment. Based on observations collected at 32 coastal wind towers, the variation of the power law exponent is analyzed and the impact of different power law exponent quantification methods on vertical wind speed extrapolation is assessed. The results show that the coastal power law exponent varies with observation height, season, and time of day, and the variation trend is spatially different. Further comparative analysis reveals that the power law exponent shows a consistent exponential decay with increasing wind speed. Compared with the fixed value quantification method based on least squares, using the power law exponent that is optimally fitted by an exponential function and fluctuates with wind speed for vertical wind speed extrapolation is meaningful and it can reduce the root mean square error of the extrapolation results by up to about 49%. However, due to the impacts of factors other than wind speed, the fitting accuracy of the power law exponent by wind speed and the effect of its application in fitting the coastal wind profile is unstable. Further research is needed to evaluate the possibility of cutting-edge technologies such as machine learning in the vertical fitting of wind fields.

     

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