运用上月各气象要素的特征来预告下月雨量——(沈阳夏季各月雨量作例)

A Proposed Method for the Monthly Rainfall Forecasting

  • 摘要: 一个地方下月的雨量,能不能从当地上月天气演变的结果所记录下来的各种气象要素的数值来推测呢?现在这篇报告的目的就想解答这个问题.关於这方面的研究,以前早有人注意,例如竺可桢教授研究过冬天温度与夏季雨量的关系1,涂长望教授研究过长江流域各月之间雨量的相关系数2.

     

    Abstract: In this paper a statistical miethod is devised for the objective monthly rainfall forecasting. From the study of numerical associations between rainfall of the present month and different meteorological elements of the previous month for the same station, we have arrived at a series of critical values which may be used as forecasting tools. The monthly rainfall at Mukden, chosen as an example, is forecasted by the combination of a set of 21 critical values., The accuracy of forecast. exceeds 75%.

     

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