我国旱涝36年周期及其产生的机制

THE 36-YR. WETNESS OSCILLATION IN CHINA AND ITS MECHANISM

  • 摘要: 本文分析了近五百年旱涝资料,发现我国东部存在36年左右的周期,长江下游地区尤其明显.进一步研究了近百年大气环流的多年变化,发现赤道中太平洋地区36年周期最突出,并且与旱涝的周期变化有密切关系.利用近期的海温资料及以前不同作者的研究结果,我们提出了一个旱涝36年周期变化机制的模式:当赤道中太平洋海面温度偏低时,相应赤道中太平洋海乎面气压偏高,澳洲附近气压偏低,对应南方涛动指数偏强,沃克环流强,哈得来环流东弱西强,北半球太平洋副热带高压东弱西强且西伸、位置偏南,我国长江下游地区偏涝;反之则偏旱.

     

    Abstract: The wetness data at 100 stations were carefully examined by means of spectrum analysis. A pronounced spectral peak in the 36-yr. was observed in the data for Shanghai and the adjacent region. The geographical distribution of relative spectral power for sea-level pressure at different grid points in Northern and Southern Hemispheres showed a stronger peak in 36-yr. at central Pacific Ocean. This 36-yr. peak for general circulation was found to be closely related with the wetness of China. The South Oscillation's index were obtained from pressure differences between grid points 160°W', 10°N and 140°E, 20°S. A clearly 36-yr. oscillation was also revealed in the long-period variation of S.O. index. The mechanism of the 36-yr. oscillation was discussed.

     

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