二维能量平衡模式中极冰对气候的影响——参数敏感性分析(二)
THE EFFECTS OF ICE CAPS ON THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL ENERGY BALANCE MODEL, PART Ⅱ.ANALYSIS OF THE SENSIBILITY TO VARIOUS PARAMETERS
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摘要: 本文应用一个非定常的二维能量平衡气候模式,用数值解方法研究了极冰-温度-反照率的反馈对气候的影响问题。计算表明,定常解是确实存在的。与国外一维模式的结果不同,对应于观测的太阳常数,只能得到唯一的现在气候解。若出现小冰河期(即冰界在50°N左右),则太阳常数要比现在的值减小17%左右。同时发现各种参数值即使改变±20%,这种冰界纬度对太阳常数的变化也不敏感。这表明,现代气候对于太阳常数的变化,是处于相当稳定的状态,而气候状态对参数的依赖性,以热量的垂直湍流交换系数和对辐射的吸收系数为最重要。这也说明了能量的垂直输送过程在决定气候状态中是起重要作用的,而这恰好是国外一维能量平衡模式所没有考虑的过程,因而必然会得到不同的结论。Abstract: The effects of ice caps-temperature-albedo feedback on the global climate are studied with a time-dependent two-dimensional energy balance model. The existence of a steady-state solution is shown by numerical experiments. In contrast to the result of one-dimensional models used by other investigators, this steady-state solution corresponding to the observed solar constant is unique. If the ice ages should occur, i.e. ice edge reaching about 50°N, the solar constant would decrease about 17%.It is also found that even various parameters be changed about ±20%,the dependence of the latitude of ice edge on solar constant is almost invariable. This shows that the existing climate is fairly stable. Among the parameters influencing climate, the coefficient of turbulent exchange of heat in vertical directions and the absorption coefficients of radiation are most important ones. Therefore the vertical transport process of the energy may play a dominant role in determining climatic state. It is just such a process which was not taken into account in one-dimensional energy balance model.