我国北方和西南一些地区谷物天气产量变化与大型环流长期振动的分析

ANALYSIS ON THE LONG-TERM FLUCTUATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION AND CORN YIELD IN THE NORTH AND THE SOUTHWEST OF CHINA

摘要: 本文揭示了我国北方和西南一些粮产区的天气和谷物天气产量存在着60-70年的长期振动,并有特定的大型环流系统的长期振动与之相配合.提出了北方和西南的“环流-天气-天气产量”同步振动模式.简言之,当冬春季节亚欧大陆冷高压偏弱和南印度洋高压偏强,相应地,夏季赤道低压偏弱和西太平洋台风发生数偏少时,我国北方处于多水期、西南处于少水期,北方和西南地区的谷物天气产量偏高.反之,北方处于少水期、西南处于多水期,谷物天气产量偏低.

Abstract: Using monthly mean sea-level pressure field over the Eastern Hemisphere during 1871-1976,the data of yearly precipitation and of yearly yield of corn in the north and the south-west of China,the 60-70-yr.long-term fluctuation for the system of 《Circulation pattern-Weather-Corn yield》 were analyzed.A fluctuation model on the system was developed.