美国业务谱模式预报的系统性误差

SYSTEMATIC ERRORS IN U. S. A. OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL MODEL FORECASTS

    摘要
  • 摘要: 本文对美国业务数值预报图月平均误差分布特点及其季节变化情况进行了考察。从系统性误差与标准差的比值分布,可以看出需要并适合于进行系统性误差订正的地区。这些地区主要在低纬度。本文还对1985年4月模式的垂直分辨率和一些物理参数化项目改变前后的预报结果做了比较,又与同期欧洲中期天气预报中心的预报水平情况做了比较。

     

    Abstract: The distribution of monthly mean errors and its seasonal variations are investigated.The ratio of monthly mean error to standard deviation is used to find out where the systematic errors should be applied. These areas are mainly in low-latitude.The improvements made after the vertical resolution and some physical parameters had been changed for April 1985 were investigated. The quality of U.S.A. operational model forecasts have also compared with ECMWF.

     

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