应用地温预报冬小麦产量的积分回归实时预报模式初探
A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE TRUE-TIME INTEGRAL REGRESSION MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE YIELDS OF WINTER WHEAT USING THE SOIL TEMPERATURE
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摘要: 土壤是农作物赖以生存的必要环境,种子发芽、根系的形成和发育都是在土壤中进行的,因而农作物生长发育与土壤水热状况的关系最为直接。本文基于这样的认识,以河北省冬小麦为例分析了1961-1978年河北省冬小麦产量与0cm,5cm,10cm,20cm地温的关系,提出一个以冬小麦生育期地温观测资料实时预报冬小麦产量的积分回归模式,并进行了试报。Abstract: In this paper,the relationships between the yields of winter wheat (as an example) in Hebei Province of China and the soil temperature in various depths (0,5,10,20cm) were analysed. Based on this,author proposed a ture-time integral regression model for forecasting the yields of winter wheat using the soil temperatures which were obtained from corresponding observation data and has made an experimental forecast.