500hPa月平均距平场演变的宏观描述
THE MACRODESCRIPTION OF THE EVOLUTION OF 500hPa MONTHLY ANOMALY FIELD
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摘要: 近年来,采用数值方法进行长期预报和气候异常的研究有了很大的进展,但是这些研究多是沿用了中短期预报的概念和方法,由于长期天气系统是一个强迫耗散的非线性系统,而“耗散系统最终将趋向维数比原始相空间低的极限集合——吸引子,许多自由度在演变过程中成为‘无关变量’,最终剩下支撑起吸引子的少数自由度”1.如果不考虑系统的极其复杂的暂态行为,我们自然可以把这些‘无关变量’去掉,从而把高维动力系统简化成低维动力系统.这个解释H.Haken称做随动原理2.本文的目的旨在应用上述原理探讨长期天气异常演变的宏观描述方法.我们希望这里提出的概念和方法将有助于建立有效的长期数值预报模式.Abstract: The concept of message approximate system for the long time evolution of dissipative system has been first proposed.The method of macro-descriptiop for the horizontal structure of long-range weather anomaly evolution given in this paper is used to study northern hemisphere 500hPa monthly mean anomaly data.The results show that the 500 hPa monthly mean anomaly field can be expressed by message approximate anomaly field which consists of a few points.The message approximate system not only slicked out the main information of anomaly evolution of long-range weather,but also filtered the "climate noise".It is believed that the concept and method will be helpful to establish effective long-range numerical forecast model.