石家庄地区干热风年型指标分析及统计预测模型

INDEX ANALYSIS OF DRY HOT WIND YEAR’S TYPE AND FORCASTING MODEL IN SHIJIAZHUANG DISTRICT

摘要: 本文提出的干热风综合指数(DHW)能反映某时期内干热风日数累积影响和干热风强度的瞬时影响,还可用来划分重、轻、无干热风年型指标。并采用岭回归方法组建DHW预测模式,其试报结果较好,克服了文献1的某些不足。

Abstract: A new synthesize index of dry hot wind (DHW) was put forward, and may be used to divide year type of day hot wind. At the same time, on the basis of cycle analysis of predictand and main component to factors selected,ridge regressions are used to set up the forcasting model of DHW.