发展与不发展南海热带低压的数值研究
A NUMERICAL MODELLING STUDY OF THE DEVELOPED AND UNDEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA
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摘要: 本文利用广东热带所的数值预报模式和ECMWF的格点资料,对两个南海低压进行了对比数值分析。其中一个低压在24小时内发展为台风,而另一个不发展。分析发现,二者初始场的温、湿、风、压结构都存在着显著差异。最为明显的是,发展者低层有明显的暖心结构和深厚的高湿层,使得条件不稳定层深厚;而不发展者暖心在高层明显,低层无暖心,而且,中低层湿度较小,所以条件不稳定层较浅薄。两个低压的不同发展趋势都得到了很好的数值模拟结果。利用模式输出结果的对比分析,讨论了南海热带气旋发展与不发展的最基本物理过程及其作用。表明对流层中低层的深厚高温层的存在及相应的温度结构和风场所导致的较强的对流加热的维持和加强,对低压的发展极为重要。Abstract: The compared analysis for two tropical depressions in South China Sea is completed by using numerical model developed in Guangdong Institute of Tropical Marine Meteorology and ECMWF data. One of them developed into a typhoon in 24 hours, but another undeveloped. The analyses show that their initial temperature, humidity, wind and pressure fields all have different structure obviously. Especially, the developed depression has a deep high-humidity layer and a clear warm-cored structure in the lower troposphere, the conditional unstable layer is deeper; the undeveloped depression has not clear warm-cored in the lower troposphere and the humidity in the mid-lower tropo-sphere is smaller, the conditional unstable layer is thinner. Different developing tendencies of two depressions are simulated successfully. Based on the model output and their comparison, the fundamental physical process which leads the tropical depression to the development or the undevelopment is discussed. It is clear that deep high-humidity layer in the mid-lower troposphere ands relevant temperature/wind field structure maintained and enhanced a strong convection heating, and it is very important to the development of the depression.