干旱、半干旱区域降水趋势可预报期限的初步研究

A STUDY OF PREDICTABLE PERIOD OF MONTHLY RAINFALL TREND IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID REGIONS

  • 摘要: 应用中国西北和美洲大陆中部干旱、半干旱区域7个长记录站的月降水量记录,分析了降水趋势的可预报期限问题。结果表明:月降水量标准化系数序列的可预报尺度为3个月左右。将该序列进行差分运算后,误差倍增时间会显着加长。

     

    Abstract: On the basis of the observational data of monthly rainfall at seven meteorological stations that are located in the arid and semi-arid regions in China and in America, the predictable periods of monthly rainfall trend in such areas are studied. The results show that:for the monthly rainfall normalized series, the time scales of the initial errors doutiling are about three months. They will become longer after translating from the normalized series into the normalized difference ones.

     

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