气候变化对东北区粮食产量的影响及其适应性对策
A SIMULATING STUDY ON THE INFLUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GRAIN YIELD AND THE COUNTERMEASURES IN THE NORTHEAST CHINA
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摘要: 采用作物生长发育和产量形成对气温、降水等资源环境条件的反应函数,建立了在气候变化条件下粮食产量变率理论推算模式,分析了在主要农作物生长季气温升、降1-2℃与降水增、减10%-20%的各种组合条件下,东北各地粮、豆作物产量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的农业对策.结果表明,气候变化对产量影响较大,地域差异明显.气温升、降1℃,粮、豆单产将升、降2%-40%,东北部变幅大于西南部;降水量增、减10%,西、西南部粮食产量将增加或减少10%左右,东南部则相反.各地应根据其影响情况采取不同的农业生产对策,如调整作物品种布局和种植结构,加强灾害防御,以确保粮食生产长期持续稳定地发展.Abstract: Using the response functions of the growth and yield of crops to temperature and precpitation,the calculating model of the variability of the yield of major grain crops of Northeast China is founded.the variability of the grain yield in various parts of Northeast China is analysed in association with variable combined condition (temperature change 1-20℃ and pricipitation change 10%-20%).The agricultural countermeasures to the climate change are also put forward.The results show that the impact of climate change on the yield of grain crops and legumes in various parts of the Area is relative great and the region difference is evident. With 10C fluctuation of temperature,there will be 2%-40% variation per unit grain yield in the most part,and the broadest range of the variation is in the northern and eastern mountationous area,the variation is vary slightly in the south parts of Liaoning Province.In the western area,the yield of the crops will incraese by about 10% with an increase of precipitation 10%,where as the crops yield will drops by about 8% in the southeastern part.Different agricultural countermeasures should be taken in various parts to adapt the climate change in the future.