近百年东亚季风长期变化中主周期振荡的奇异谱分析

徐建军; 朱乾根; 施能

doi:10.11676/qxxb1997.060

近百年东亚季风长期变化中主周期振荡的奇异谱分析

南京气象学院, 南京, 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(49475265)

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 1996-05-16
- 修回日期: 1996-09-15
- 发布日期: 2013-02-19

THE SINGULAR SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF PERIODIC OSCILLATION IN LONG-TERM VARIATION OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON IN RECENT CENTURY

Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044

摘要

摘要: 运用海平面气压场资料,计算1873-1990年的东亚冬、夏季风强度指数,并利用奇异谱分析方法(SSA)对这百年的东亚季风长期变化的周期活动进行了研究。研究表明:东亚冬、夏季风都存在准2a(QBO)、3-6a(LFO)的年际振荡,16-18a(IDO)的年代际振荡和长期变化趋势。各振荡分量都具有年代际的差别,这种特征QBO表现得最典型。冬季风的QBO在1920年代前振幅较小,且大约呈现12a的大振幅和6a的小振幅波状的周期变化;夏季风的QBO振幅变化与冬季风相反,且大约呈现6a的大振幅和3a的小振幅波状的周期变化。夏季风中的年代际变化影响较小。
- 东亚季风 /
- 年际 /
- 年代际 /
- 奇异谱分析
Abstract: Based on sea level pressure data from 1873 to 1990, the East-Asian monsoon inten-sity index is caculated to discuss the periodic oscillation of East-Asian monso on long-term variation in recent century by using the method of singular spectral analysis (SSA). The results indicate that the long-term variation in East-Asian monso on shows the interannual oscillation of the quasi-biennial (QBO) and 3-6 years (LFO) and the interdecadal oscillation of 16-18 years (IDO); that these oscillation components exhibit the interdecadal variation, and the QBO is remarkable especially; that the amplitude of QBO in winter monsoon is smaller before 1920s and shows the wavelike changing with greater amplitude of about 12 years and smaller of about 6 years; that the summer monsoon changing is opposite to winter monsoon with about 6 years greater and about 3 years smaller; and that the interdecadal variation in summer monsoon is dominant.
- East-Asian monsoon /
- Interannual and interdecadal /
- Singular spectral analysis

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参考文献(12)

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