NMC第二代中期数值预报系统误差的动力诊断
THE DYNAMICAL DIAGNOSIS OF THE SYSTEMATIC ERRORS OF THE SECOND GENERATION MEDIUM-RANGE NWP MODEL AT CNMC
-
摘要: 利用国家气象中心第二代中期数值预报模式计算了1月和7月的预报诊断量。计算结果表明,新一代模式在动力外强迫作用、辐射通量和对流参数化等物理过程方面的改进,使该模式的预报比第一代模式有了较大的改善,模式预报的系统误差明显减小。通过对角动量、热量和水汽的经向输送和收支平衡的分析,认为该模式在地形处理、陆面过程、云辐射和积云对流参数化等物理过程还有待进一步改进。Abstract: Upon using the dynamic statistics of the at mospheric circulation the monthly mean forecasting fields of January and July of 1996 obtained from the second generation medium-range numerical weather prediction(NWP) model(T63) have been investigated. The results indicate that the new generation model has been improved remarkably in comparison with the old one. The systematic prediction errors of model have been reduced significantly. However there still exist some differences in the distributions in wind, temperature and moisture fields between forecasts and observation. After having diag nosed the transfers and budgets of angular momentum, heat and water vapour of the T63 model, and compared these with observ ations, it was suggested that, to improve the model performance, the treatments of orography, land surface processes, cloud radiation and convection paramet erization in the model need to be improved further.
-
Keywords:
- T63L16 model /
- Model systematic errors /
- Dynamical diagnosis
-
-
叶笃正,朱抱真.大气环流的若干基本问题.北京:科学出版社,1958.160 Obasi G O P.Poleward flux of at mospheric angular momentum in the Southern Hemis phere.J Atmos Sci,1963,20(6):516-528
Kung E C.On the momentum exchange between the atmosphere and earth over the Northern Hemis phere.Mon Wea Rev,1968,96:337-341
Newton C W.Mountain torques in the global angular momentum balance.J Atmos Sci,1971,28:623-628
Oort A H.On estimates of the at mosp heric energy cycle.Mon Wea Rev,1964,92:483-493
Oort A H and Peixoto J P.The annual cycle of the energetics of the at mosphere on a planetarys cale.J Geophys Res,1974,79:2705-2719
Holopainen EO.On the mean meridional circulation and the flux of angular mementum over the Northern Hemi-sphere.Tellus,1967,19:1-13
Minta Y.The observed zonal circulation of the at mosp here.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1954,35:208-214
Palmen E and Vuorela L.On the mean meridional circulations in the Nort hern Hemis phere during the winter season.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1963,89:131-138
Lau N-Cand Oort A H.A comparative study of the observed Northern Hemisphere circulation statistics based on GFDL and NMC analyses.Part 1:The time mean fields.Mon Wea Rev,1981,109:1380-1403
Oort A H.Globalatmos pheric circulation statistics,1958-1973.NOAA Pr of essional Paper 14,1983.180
Oort A H and Peixoto J P.Global angular momentum and energy balance requirements from observation.Advin Geop,A cademic Press,1983,25:355-490
吴国雄,刘还珠.全球大气环流时间平均统计图集.北京:气象出版社,1987.1～16 刘还珠,Tibaldi,吴国雄.ECMWF预报模式在不同地形方案下的系统误差检验.气象,1987,13(3):3～8 张绍晴,刘还珠,吴国雄,杨云峰.Diagnos is of NWP systematic forecas terrors in zonal meancirculation.Acta Meteor Sinica,1995,9(3):287-301 Wu G X and Chen B.Non-accelaration theorem in a primitive equation system.Adv Atmos Sci,1989,6:1-20
皇甫雪官等.高分辨率的全球环流背景预报模式.台风、暴雨业务数值预报方法和技术研究.北京:气象出版社,1996.462-471 Wallace J M,Tibaldi S and Simmon A J.Reduction of systematic forecasting errors in the ECMWF model through the introduction of anenvelope orography.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1983,109:683-717
计量
- 文章访问数: 1735
- HTML全文浏览量: 22
- PDF下载量: 2141
下载:
